Bawumia Leads CenPOA’s Opinion Poll

Former Vice President of Ghana and flagbearer hopeful of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, has emerged as the leading contender in the party’s presidential primary, according to findings from a nationwide delegate-based opinion poll conducted by the Center for Public Opinion and Awareness (CenPOA) and released in Accra yesterday.

The poll shows Dr. Bawumia polling 42 percent of stated voting intentions among delegates, ahead of Kennedy Agyapong, who garnered 34 percent.

Seven percent of respondents indicated support for other aspirants, while 17 percent said they remain undecided, suggesting that the contest is still open.

Dr. Bawumia’s lead is underpinned by strong support across the northern regions, where his backing exceeds two-thirds of delegates in several areas.

He also maintains competitive support levels in Bono East and the Eastern Region, extending his appeal beyond his traditional base into key middle-belt and southern regions.

The research was led by Michael Donyina Mensah and involved 2,792 potential party delegates across 55 constituencies in all 16 regions of the country.

However, the poll also highlights areas of vulnerability. In Ashanti, Bono, Ahafo and the Western Region – regions with some of the highest concentrations of party delegates – the margins between the leading candidates are narrower, indicating that voting patterns in these areas could influence the final outcome.

The survey points to a high level of voter fluidity within the party, with about 28 percent of delegates indicating a willingness to change their voting preference ahead of the primary. Loyalty analysis further shows that 67 percent of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s previous supporters intend to maintain their support, compared with 81 percent loyalty among supporters of Kennedy Agyapong.

Delegates cited marketability and perceived national electability as the most influential factor in their choice of candidate, followed by political experience, job creation and grassroots connection.

This suggests that delegates are prioritising the party’s chances in the next general election over internal party considerations.

Kennedy Agyapong’s support is concentrated largely in Greater Accra, Central, Volta, Oti and Western North regions, which the poll identifies as areas with relatively higher levels of undecided delegates.

Overall, the poll suggests that while Dr. Bawumia enters the race as the frontrunner, the presence of a sizeable undecided bloc and shifting voter loyalties could result in a closely contested primary, with the possibility of a runoff not ruled out.

 

 

 

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