APL Poll Reveals: Bawumia Will Win One Touch

A nationwide poll conducted by Africa Policy Lens (APL) has placed former Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, in a commanding position ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primary, following constituency-level engagements with party delegates.

The poll, conducted between December 8, 2025 and January 23, 2026 was led by Dr. Hayford Mensah Ayerakwa, Director of Research, Administration and Partnerships at APL, under the supervision of Dr. George Domfe, President of Africa Policy Lens.

Methodology

The research was sponsored and carried out by APL as part of its public opinion and policy analysis programme. Data was gathered through telephone interviews conducted from APL’s Accra-based call centre. A team of 12 trained field assistants reached respondents in all 276 constituencies nationwide.A total of 9,122 respondents were interviewed. The poll has a 2% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

Respondent Profile

The survey was dominated by polling station executives (99.3%), with constituency executives accounting for 0.3% and electoral area coordinators 0.4%. No Members of Parliament were captured.Male respondents constituted 76.1%, while 23.9% were female.

Respondents aged 36–45 years formed the largest group (38.2%), followed by those aged 40–60 years (33.6%). Delegates aged 25–35 years accounted for 20.8%, with 7% above 60 years. Only 0.5% were aged 18–24.

In terms of education, 43.8% had completed Middle School, JSS or JHS, 26.4% were SHS graduates, and 19.8% had tertiary education. About 5.5% attained primary education, while 4.5% had no formal education.

Constituency Outreach

On constituency visibility, Ken Ohene Agyapong recorded the highest reach, with 98.4% of delegates confirming his visits. Dr. Bawumia followed closely with 97.9% while Bryan Acheampong recorded 82.6%. Kwabena Agyapong and Yaw Osei Adutwum recorded 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively.

Message Clarity

Despite the extensive outreach by several aspirants, Dr. Bawumia emerged as the candidate with the clearest and most convincing message, polling 69.7%.

He was followed by Ken Ohene Agyapong (48.3%) and Bryan Acheampong (40.5%). Kwabena Agyapong and Yaw Osei Adutwum recorded 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, while 1.16% said none of the candidates impressed them.

APL noted that although three aspirants were perceived to have clear messages, Dr. Bawumia made the strongest overall impression on delegates.

Delegates identified party unity and reconciliation (52.9%) and support for grassroots and delegates (51.9%) as the issues most effectively addressed by the aspirants.

Policy vision for the country recorded 28.3%, strategy to win national elections stood at 16.6%, while internal party reforms recorded 10.5%.

Other issues accounted for 29.5%.

Shifts in Support

The poll further revealed notable shifts in delegate preferences following constituency engagements.Support for Bryan Acheampong increased from 3.14% before visits to 5.20% after.

Ken Ohene Agyapong, however, saw his support decline from 27.74% to 25.10%.Dr. Bawumia recorded the most significant gain, with delegate support rising from 54.09% before engagements to 61.0% after.

Support for Kwabena Agyapong rose marginally from 0.26% to 0.30%, while Yaw Osei Adutwum dipped slightly from 0.15% to 0.10%.The proportion of undecided delegates fell sharply from 14.34% to 8.00%, suggesting that constituency-level engagements significantly influenced voting intentions.

Outlook

According to APL, the findings indicate that ground engagement, message clarity, and party cohesion remain decisive factors in the NPP’s internal contest, with Dr. Bawumia currently enjoying the clearest advantage as the race intensifies.

 

 

 

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