Ships remain cautious approaching Strait of Hormuz amid fragile ceasefire

The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the US-Israel war with Iran after Tehran effectively choked off one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on Tuesday included a condition that “safe passage” through the narrow waterway would be guaranteed.

However, vessels in the area have received messages that they would be “targeted and destroyed” if they attempted to cross the strait without permission, and only a few ships have made the journey over the past two days.

The disruption since the conflict began five weeks ago has sent shock waves across the global economy, destabilising energy prices and exposing just how reliant international supply chains are on the strait.

As well as energy, the channel is also vital for transporting chemicals needed to process products like microchips, pharmaceuticals and fertiliser.

Having risen dramatically during the conflict, the price of oil initially fell on news of the ceasefire.

Shipping analysts have warned to expect only a trickle of crossings for now.

“Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available,” Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime told the BBC.

By 14:00 BST on 9 April only eleven ships (three tankers, one container ship and seven bulk carriers) had passed through the strait since the ceasefire.

That’s based on BBC Verify analysis of ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic.

That compares to 138 ships that passed through the strait each day, on average, before the conflict started on 28 February.

We do not know if the vessels that crossed were the result of the ceasefire, or whether they had already planned to make the journey.

If crossings do resume, Meade expects that stranded tankers that are fully loaded with cargo will be the first through.

“You’ve had nearly 800 ships stuck in there for several weeks. Most of them are now loaded with cargo, so the priority is going to be to get them out.”

The duration of the ceasefire – set to last two weeks – also brings uncertainty for ships, says Niels Rasmussen, a shipping analyst from BIMCO.

Credit: bbc.com

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